So it will be tough to hazard a guess right now

So it will be tough to hazard a guess right now

RBI pause continuing in Jan

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canada goose clearance sale Q: What is the buy canada goose jacket cheap outlook for currency in 2014? We had a rough ride in 2013. Last quarter was slightly better, had a bit of a recovery, but for 2014 what would be your outlook? canada goose clearance sale

canadian goose jacket A: I canada goose black friday sale think the good news on the currency front is that we now have Canada Goose Coats On Sale some control on the Balance of Payments (BoP) situation. The Current Account Deficit (CAD) numbers are much lower. We have got quite a lot of inflows through the concessional swap schemes which has created little bit of a buffer to address any kind of currency volatility. canadian goose jacket

buy canada goose jacket The currency really remains on two macro cheap Canada Goose factors inflation and fiscal deficit uk canada goose and the non macro factor which is the politics if it plays negatively when the election time comes in. If the politics does not play spoilsport I would tend to think that there is no real negative surprise on the currency front in the near term. The global situation also remains somewhat better now. Most of the developed countries are picking up pace on growth, so that should also help Indian exports and to that extent support the currency. buy canada goose jacket

cheap Canada Goose Overall, it should be a relatively less volatile year this year on the currency front. The Canada Goose Online big unknown, the big digital risk is politics which is extremely difficult to predict. cheap Canada Goose

Canada Goose Parka Q: What is the slippage that you are estimating on fiscal deficit? Canada Goose Parka

canada goose A: At this point of time we are going with about Rs 20,000 crore slippage on the fiscal deficit, about 0.2 percent of GDP. This is a number which we probably have to relook at once the December advance tax numbers are really filtered into the system and we get the December data, so we will get 9 months canada goose uk shop of data and we will be in a better position to look at this number. This is a very hard number to predict at any point of time because it depends a lot on very large lumpy non tax revenue items as well. canada goose

canada goose store The HZL and Balco sale, how much of PSU cash transfer will happen, canada goose outlet how canada goose factory sale much of subsidies will get deferred to next year, these are all very lumpy items on which political decisions need to be made and that is why for us economics has become little bit more challenging to predict this number, but having said that I think some marginal slippage is almost inevitable at this point of time. canada goose store

canada goose clearance I would also like to say that this would not necessarily mean additional borrowing on the part canada goose coats on sale of the government, because the government started off the year with huge cash surplus and they can spend that cash surplus through the year and end with a relatively lesser cash surplus and not go for any significant additional borrowing. canada goose clearance

canada goose coats Q: The first Reserve Bank of India (RBI) meeting this year would be on January 28th. I know the government has said that he will be data dependent. So it will be tough to hazard a guess right now. What is your call for monetary policy this year? canada goose coats

Canada Goose online A: We will take it as it comes. We will have to take near shorter term canada goose clearance sale calls rather than a big long term call, because the inflation number has been notoriously unpredictable in the near term because of the one off items like vegetable prices etc. What we are realising is that the kind of hawkishness that we had heard in the Governor’s voice in September, probably he is now moderating that a bit and the concern on http://www.mycanadagoosejacket.org headline inflation is less and the concern on core inflation is more. Canada Goose online

canada goose deals If we take that kind of a stance then if we see about 75 100 bps correction in the headline print for January then we could possibly see him staying on pause for one more policy. He would probably say that the decline in vegetable prices which we can definitely vouch for is substantial enough for him to wait. canada goose deals

canada goose coats on sale We have taken a call that if the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) comes down below 10.5 percent, we would probably see him going in pause mode and also the core CPI needs to canada goose coats stay somewhat lower than what it was in the earlier print canada goose coats on sale.